Damage Effectiveness Calculation of Hitting Targets with Ammunition Based on Bayesian Multinomial Distribution

Owning to the fact that ammunition can cause varying degrees of damage its target, this article presents a effectiveness calculation method hitting targets with based on Bayesian multinomial distribution solve problems complex processes, few trial times and difficult calculations probability in target-hitting tests high-tech ammunition, according index about occurrence different damage. Based concept symmetry, idea “divide level—determine distribution—integrate information—solve distribution” is adopted. Firstly, paper describes test attacking multiple distributions; secondly, integrates information strike Dempster–Shafer evidence theory (D–S theory) symmetry advantage; finally, attempts symmetric posterior parameters Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The result demonstrates very significant improving accuracy effectiveness, which could describe detail by integrating prior types effectiveness.